Corona Virus

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Bok
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Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:21 pm

John_B wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 10:38 pm
In a sense it's odd we're not hearing people discuss the issue of what Chinese people are going through. They've extended and broadened the New Year's shut-down until the 10th, and of course things are creepier in the epicenter where all vehicle traffic has been shut down.
That part is really kind of sad. It must be a horrible situation. Yet I am hesitant to ask friends there, because I personally do not want to cause them trouble if they were to say something critical of their governments response to the outbreak... the crackdown on public sentiment is at least as harsh as it is on the virus.

What I also see rarely mentioned in Western media is that apart from lots of Hubei, most other major cities in China have been cordoned off as well. Shanghai is still open, but many others are not. Again my source is the Taiwanese media.
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Baisao
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Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:33 pm

Bok wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:21 pm
John_B wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 10:38 pm
In a sense it's odd we're not hearing people discuss the issue of what Chinese people are going through. They've extended and broadened the New Year's shut-down until the 10th, and of course things are creepier in the epicenter where all vehicle traffic has been shut down.
That part is really kind of sad. It must be a horrible situation. Yet I am hesitant to ask friends there, because I personally do not want to cause them trouble if they were to say something critical of their governments response to the outbreak... the crackdown on public sentiment is at least as harsh as it is on the virus.

What I also see rarely mentioned in Western media is that apart from lots of Hubei, most other major cities in China have been cordoned off as well. Shanghai is still open, but many others are not. Again my source is the Taiwanese media.
NPR was in phone contact with people in Wuhan for their report this morning. Apparently, filial piety is putting a lot of young people in harm’s way as they care for their ill parents. People are being quarantined at home and are afraid to be sick and die alone. There’s uncertainty whether people are ill from a common cold or nCoV.

Citizens are frustrated by a circular passing of responsibilities from various civil entities. Entity A tells you to talk to B, B tells you to talk to C, C tells you to talk to A.

These are just some of the details I recall from this morning.
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Brent D
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Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:43 am

I saw some drone footage of Wuhan. Very eerie.
It really seems to be more of a flavor of the day in the news for the west. Our media is focused on internal politics and other fleeting stories that are quick attention grabbers. You need to search for things pertaining to the virus.
We are hearing that there is no sign of this slowing down, and it seems to be getting worse. Today the FDA has approved a new testing method for a much faster diagnosis. Sounds like we are getting ready for it to hit.
A friend of mine works on an airbase in California. He says the have a hanger blocked off with about 40 people currently quarantined.
Last edited by Chip on Wed Feb 05, 2020 2:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Mod edit. Political comment removed per forum rules.
brutusK
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Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:54 am

Baisao wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:33 pm
Bok wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:21 pm
John_B wrote:
Tue Feb 04, 2020 10:38 pm
In a sense it's odd we're not hearing people discuss the issue of what Chinese people are going through. They've extended and broadened the New Year's shut-down until the 10th, and of course things are creepier in the epicenter where all vehicle traffic has been shut down.
That part is really kind of sad. It must be a horrible situation. Yet I am hesitant to ask friends there, because I personally do not want to cause them trouble if they were to say something critical of their governments response to the outbreak... the crackdown on public sentiment is at least as harsh as it is on the virus.

What I also see rarely mentioned in Western media is that apart from lots of Hubei, most other major cities in China have been cordoned off as well. Shanghai is still open, but many others are not. Again my source is the Taiwanese media.
NPR was in phone contact with people in Wuhan for their report this morning. Apparently, filial piety is putting a lot of young people in harm’s way as they care for their ill parents. People are being quarantined at home and are afraid to be sick and die alone. There’s uncertainty whether people are ill from a common cold or nCoV.

Citizens are frustrated by a circular passing of responsibilities from various civil entities. Entity A tells you to talk to B, B tells you to talk to C, C tells you to talk to A.

These are just some of the details I recall from this morning.
This is what drives me nuts about the Americans I've seen talking about nCoV: only mention of China in nCoV news us either "China released a pathogen" conspiracy theories and "THEY SHOULD QUARANTINE BUT HARDER".

Absolutely nothing in the public discourse over the human cost of such quarantines, and the fear and panic. One thing public health and virology folks talk about is making sure to not cause more harm in our prevention than the disease itself. But that gets completely lost on Americans who have seen too many zombie movies and demand mass quarantines because "better safe than sorry". There's a human side to this and there's a such thing as erring too far on the side of caution to the point of harming people needlessly. Where the Chinese quarantined cities will end up falling in that calculation we'll see after the fact. This is the largest quarantine in history and hard to compare to others. Thank you for bringing in the human side to this, John.

To that point, I'd say that mandatory quarantines like those at the airbase you mention Brent, are not supported by the science.
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Bok
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Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:12 am

@Baisao in regards to filial piety, I read another article (in English this time) which interviewed one person in Wuhan. He said they’d rather die than go to the hospital for the simple reason that they are full. Infected are sent to quarantine camps which lack beds and even heating, so his elderly father is more like to die there than being at least taken care of a minimum at home. That same person said his uncle died already like that in a quarantine facility... I think it was BBC or the Guardian, not sure.

On Taiwanese news I saw some sad videos from the countryside where even less care is take of people and you only see government in hazmat suits and guns trying to do crowd control... there really is a huge disparity in what is shown in Asian media and in the West. One side seems to panic a little too much, the other probably not enough.

One thing is sure the repercussions for China and the world in total will be felt for some time...
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rdl
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Thu Feb 06, 2020 10:32 am

The tragic story of Dr. Li Wenliang is a truth-telling tale of human behavior.
The virus, like all living organisms, is behaving as viruses do. The human actions, just as predictable, just as morally reprehensible; humans behaving just as human beings do.
And against this nature are many heros among us, who deserve great praise.
May all those directly and indirectly affected be comforted in the coming days.
John_B
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Tue Feb 11, 2020 4:40 am

An online contact mentioned an updated reference related to how long this coronavirus might be live on surfaces:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/victoriafo ... 3dea4014e3

According to that a standard estimate is for remaining alive on hard surfaces for 4 to 5 days, based on testing on the closest related viruses. In some cases a virus could survive on a hard surface (glass, plastic, or metal) for up to 9 days, if the temperature is low and humidity high.

It's nothing to worry about, and certainly doesn't change risk from shipped tea. It is interesting hearing an update more related to that particular virus category though, and eventually could be something to think about here in Bangkok.

The broader story about risk for the rest of the world relates instead to how successful China will be at containing the virus. That relates to how widespread it currently is; if the current stats reflect a lot of the actual experienced cases and deaths. I've had trouble imagining they could keep it as restricted as they have already, but it will be necessary to let people travel more freely around the country again at some point.

It has been especially interesting and informative seeing posts and discussions about it related to Singapore, since a study there was able to trace the path of every known case, who gave it to who, back when they were at 30 cases (45 now, not that much longer). I'm not overthinking this because there are other horrors to be considered (Thailand's first mass shooting occurred this past weekend--I'll be processing that for awhile), but the reference was interesting for detail it covered. A later report version (with other information in that sub):

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Baisao
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Tue Feb 11, 2020 12:33 pm

Thanks for sharing that, @John_B.

One of the concerns many of us have is that the official numbers from China look fake (underreported child illnesses) and doctors on the ground have said no one is taking numbers in this because of the chaos they are experiencing.

This is further supported, though anecdotally, by the chaotic scenes that are leaking out. It’s hard to imagine collecting proper epidemiological data amidst such bedlam.

The best data is coming from Singapore, Germany, Japan, etc.

It’s concerning that cruise ship passengers docked in HK only quarantined for 4 days. The initial estimate for incubation was 14 days, now moved up to 25 days. Why release people only after 4 days when it could take 14-24 days to appear on PCR tests and false negatives are abundant with PCR testing?

It’s reckless.
brutusK
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Tue Feb 11, 2020 12:49 pm

Baisao wrote:
Tue Feb 11, 2020 12:33 pm


It’s concerning that cruise ship passengers docked in HK only quarantined for 4 days. The initial estimate for incubation was 14 days, now moved up to 25 days. Why release people only after 4 days when it could take 14-24 days to appear on PCR tests and false negatives are abundant with PCR testing?
The estimate has not moved up to 25 days and is not even 14 days. Even directly from that paper: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20020974v1. "The median incubation period was 3.0 days (range, 0 to 24.0 days)."

The median from a few different sources now still remains below 5 days to my understanding. There may be cases where it is longer but this is not the same as an estimate on which policy decisions should be made. More research to understand how likely this 24-25 day incubation period is or if this was an example of 1 or 2 patients where this was the case.

I still caution that insistence on strength of quarantines and harsh responses may end up causing more damage than otherwise.

I will agree with you that epidemiological data at the site of any outbreak is always a mess.
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Baisao
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Tue Feb 11, 2020 4:58 pm

@brutusK, why use the mean and not the largest outlier for defining the end of a quarantine?

Also, how do you envision quarantines of non-expert persons causing more problems?
brutusK
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Tue Feb 11, 2020 5:56 pm

I think that is when you'd start referring to other statistics such as confidence intervals. There are extreme examples of different aspects of viral infections all the time, this does not mean they are the norm or should be the basis for policy.

For example, in my direct area of expertise, Zika virus can be found in the semen of infected men for 6 months after infection. I think the same or similar is true of Ebola. But, these are not typical cases and can sometimes have complicating factors driving the prolonged shedding. To suggest a 6 month quarantine for such men would be extremely expensive and not all that supported by evidence of how common that is. This is why it is important to have more than just medians and ranges. You are correct in saying that we shouldn't be deciding these things based on medians either, I will grant that :) .

As far as quarantines go: with regards to cruise ships as you pointed an HK-bound cruise ship issue, the cruise ship currently quarantined near Japan (Diamond Princess), has been handled in such a way that it is now becoming a fascinating, but sad, transmission study in an enclosed space. The quarantine itself onboard the ship might be what is driving the infection to spread.

Another example would be some of the images and tales that are coming out of the people in quarantined areas within China via Weibo, etc. of people running out of food, supplies, not getting adequate care, etc. I suppose we shall see how much of it is true and how much of it is alarmist. But I will say this: heavy handed quarantines are not always the answer, and many times, do not end up being particularly effective at stopping epidemics if one looks at the literature. They will delay, but not stop it.

(Realizing now that I need to make this clear to head off some misunderstandings I've had with others, not on this forum, over the past week. Isolation is the term for if someone is already sick. Quarantine is a pre-emptive measure for people for whom you suspect had exposure. I 100% stand behind the efficacy of isolation procedures.)
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aet
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Wed Feb 12, 2020 8:52 pm

just an update....

many villages where good puerh can be sourced , are closed for outsiders now.
It is nice to see that , as they use take pictures with red ( 100CNY ) bills piles when they sold some tea , now same pictures appear for Wuhan support...just piles are much smaller of course ;-D
...yet, fair play to them.
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Bok
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Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:22 pm

aet wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 8:52 pm
just an update....

many villages where good puerh can be sourced , are closed for outsiders now.
It is nice to see that , as they use take pictures with red ( 100CNY ) bills piles when they sold some tea , now same pictures appear for Wuhan support...just piles are much smaller of course ;-D
...yet, fair play to them.
Villages are probably some of the safer places at the moment... :|

Hope things get better soon. Talked to some friends in Shanghai, they say no one knows what is going on, hiding inside, masks are sold out and all the doctors and lots of medical equipment has been sent off to Wuhan.
Sweetestdew
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Wed Feb 19, 2020 1:31 am

Just an update on the china situation.

Recently China has begun to relax on isolation restrictions.
A few days ago the kaui di, delivery services, resumed work.
Videos of highways being unblocked are going around social media.

That being said many businesses are still being forced to stay closed. This includes shipping services.
(only packages that had already been sent out are being delivered).
Internet control is hightened, which is causing a lot of VPNs not to work.

I suspect things to be closed for at least a week more, maybe going into early march.
If you are waitting on tea from me or any other China based company, you will have to wait a little while longer but hopefully not much.
swordofmytriumph
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Wed Feb 19, 2020 2:36 am

How much do you think this is going to affect the early spring tea harvest?
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