Buying Pu'erh for the long haul

[Rickpatbrown]

I know this topic has been discussed before, but there are a few considerations that I havent figured out. Plus, y'all are way more knowledgable and will probably teach me some stuff.

So I did "the" calculation last night. I'm assuming I have about 30-40 years of tea drinking ahead of me. I average about 25 grams of Pu'erh a week. This puts me somewhere around 50 kg for the rest of my life. The more I drink, the more I gravitate towards higher end aged tea. Right now, I have some ~2005 cakes that are really nice. I feel like 15 years is a good place to start really enjoying (depending on storage, of course). The problem is that I the decent stuff is about 0.50$/g, the good stuff is about 1.00$/g and the really good stuff is even higher. In the end, we are talking about $50,000 worth of tea

Its tempting to look at $20-40 cakes from Yunnan Sourcing and others and age them myself in my pumidor. But I have a feeling that these cakes will not become teas that bring me a lot of joy. When I look at high end, young sheng, I see $150-$300 cakes (anywhere from 200-400g). Is this really how much good young sheng costs?

There is so much that goes into Pu'erh. Starting with the earth, the trees, the particular weather that year, the time they were picked, the PROCESSESING and the aging. Each of these affect the end product. Fortunately, all but the last one is done before we buy a young cake. Unfortunately, no one can ever learn from experience about the characteristics of young sheng that will make it age well (our lives are too short). If you start when you are 20, you'll get 4 aging cycles to 15 years. That's not enough to really understand the connection between young sheng and its aged state ... not to mention that 15 years is still a short time for aging.

There is of course a lot of collective knowledge. People write about tea and pass on what worked and what didnt. I guess that's what I'm trying to get at, here. What is the best strategy for me keeping my teapot full for the rest of my life with tea that makes me happy?

I have the suspicion that $20 cakes will not turn into $1000 cakes. I worry that $200 cakes will turn into $20 cakes, though the factory cakes sound like the safest bet for aging. They are designed for this and have a long track record. But I feel like they will never be the most exceptional examples. All the boutique brands, pressing limited areas sounds like they have an opportunity for some really special, unique teas. Of course, they are riskier.

A few teas that might give you an idea of what I'm talking about are:
https://www.farmer-leaf.com/collections ... ai-gulan-1
And
https://teaswelike.com/product/2020-biy ... guoyoulin/

Just to be clear, I'm not into drinking young sheng. There was another thread talking about this strange concept. I worry that some of these expensive cakes are meant more for immediate consumption. IMO, there is much better tea out there if you want to drink fresh tea.

I have sampled a lot of young sheng from Yuannan Sourcing, but it was never super high end. I just dont know what to make of sampling, though. I have a lot to learn.

Sorry for the long post. Look forward to hearing people's thoughts.

[pantry]

I think a lot of these decisions really come down to personal preferences. I would start with thinking about the common aspects in the teas I enjoy drinking. Another important factor not to be ignored is whether your preferences will change over the years. While the very high end fresh puerh are multiple times over $1/g, you can get very high quality tea for less than that. Volume usually helps. I'm sure William can give you a discount if you order his Gulan cakes by the case

[Balthazar]

Right now, I have some ~2005 cakes that are really nice. I feel like 15 years is a good place to start really enjoying (depending on storage, of course).

Were these cakes stored for 15 years in your own appartment?

The first thing I would consider before making any decision about how much puer to buy, is how your home storage alters the tea over the long term (as in several years/decades).

Apologies if you've talked about this elsewhere. But unless you have actually witnessed the transformation of young puer into something nicely matured in your own apartment (or any other storage location you have access to...), I would be very careful to buy more than I could consume in a couple years time. A simple test is to take a cake you consider quite nice at the present moment and see how it's turned out one year down the line.

If you already know that you can trust your own storage, then that's great. Some other questions then become relevant: How confident are you that your current tea preferences will be the same ten years down the line? (This is most relevant for newish drinkers.) How many cakes do you actually have the space or money to buy? How much of a risk are you willing to take (flood/fire etc.)? Also, remember the "present value" concept, a given amount of money today is generally worth more than the same tomorrow, not to mention ten years down the line. How puer prices develop is anybody's guess, but it's entirely possible that, for example, premium cakes keeps rising in price while "daily drinker" stuff (I know this term is relative) plateaus at a certain point or even decreases.

Not a very helpful reply, and it probably says more about my own priorities than anything else. But I'd be careful to buy too much, especially cakes that I have no idea how will age. The future is uncertain. And there is also the risk that one gets "thinged" by things.

[EarthMonkey]

Seems you've set a project for yourself. What a thorough post. It sounds like you're a tea speculator. You have to understand that if you're seeking to speculate that you must purchase productions that are highly regarded or have the potential to be highly regarded in future. You must recognize that much of this is mystique, puffery, not reality imho.

Having been collecting since '13, I've seen tremendous up-spike in hoarding and prices. The very same recipes from 2-4 yrs earlier are being sold at 3X the price, and a movement into ever greater boutique-ification, where items aren't just Lincang Bangdong, but XYZ village in Bandong prefecture or whatever they call it. None of these productions have been tested over time and are being manufactured to meet mkt demand for "new" and "fresh" creations that have the easy appeal of wulong. It's not a knock on these productions but they may not be for aging.

Interestingly, there is something that I learned having to do with an "wulongification" of young puerhs, which makes them fantastically sweet at the outset. This allows for the material to be pawned off as "gushu." Since many Westerners consume their 200g item without any intention of storage, the methods have not revealed themselves. I think it's the same among the trendy tea drinking youth in China. I purchased one such production, which the vendor stealthily no longer offers as I do not think it was their intention to dupe their buyers but were duped in their own buying. There's lot's of dupery. Anyway, I'm echoing your sentiment about looking at Chinese factory productions for aging. They also present a relatively good value. . . which brings us to below.

$1/g for good aged puerh? Maybe do more drinking blind of aged productions and then see if it costs that much. I did run into some very expensive productions in KL last Dec, more than $2us/g for the age in question, but I concluded that such a place, although tucked away, must have been for rich stupid mainlanders. I tasted one of their $750 cakes from Nannuo and came away feeling exquisitely confident in my purchase price/gram strategy. "Stupid mainlander" isn't meant to be taken wrong. It's just that often the amount of money the nuevo ricoisto pays matters more than value, which they're not qualified to discern.

Certainly mainlanders aren't the only who fall into this category.

So, how much time do you have to separate the wheat from the chaff? You may start with factories that grab your fancy. Probably starting with 5 factories and 5 samples from each, which you test blindly to give you some direction. Go with your YQH but also don't dismiss very strong performers like Liming and Lao Man E. Sure CYH but MK Rongshi presents a tremendous value.

You need to be aware that teas you might like now you might not be so keen on two years from now, not only because your tastes may change but also because the teas themselves are moving targets. Older doesn't mean better. After the production has reached what you consider to be its peak, it's not going to get better and you my only realise this in retrospect.

Mainland storage is the BEST storage for long term. Guandong storage is best. I've tasted enough Taiwan fancy stuff, and HK is worse. It still takes YEARS to air that stuff out; what's more the material has been thoroughly cooked, including the qi, to an extent that it has virtually no taste dynamics. Of course, I'm being opinionated on this matter but stuff killed in HK for 10 yrs either tastes like garbage water or in best case highly mineralized dirt water. There are NO high notes. Some prefer that, like my wife. I don't.

Hope this helps without coming off as some authority, which I don't claim to be.

[pantry]

"Stupid mainlander" isn't meant to be taken wrong.

If that was not your intention, then it's really unnecessary to propagate a stereotype.

Saying "I'm not XYZ-ist but..." is still XYZ-ist.

[Rickpatbrown]

Right now, I have some ~2005 cakes that are really nice. I feel like 15 years is a good place to start really enjoying (depending on storage, of course).

Were these cakes stored for 15 years in your own appartment?

The first thing I would consider before making any decision about how much puer to buy, is how your home storage alters the tea over the long term (as in several years/decades).

Apologies if you've talked about this elsewhere. But unless you have actually witnessed the transformation of young puer into something nicely matured in your own apartment (or any other storage location you have access to...), I would be very careful to buy more than I could consume in a couple years time. A simple test is to take a cake you consider quite nice at the present moment and see how it's turned out one year down the line.

Yes. This is a major concern and one that doesnt seem to have a clear answer in the west, in general. We have only been aging tea as hobbiest for about 10-15 years.

I have only been storing pu'erh for about 2 years. In general, the tea tastes great. It's hard for me to follow the progression over years, though. Nor do I expect to be able to tell how a tea will change in 20 years, based on how it changes in 2.

But I think you give good advice. I should keep an eye on the medium aged stuff that I have and see how it changes, before I start buying tons of expensive young sheng and risk wasting a lot of money.

[Victoria]

Thanks for sharing @EarthMonkey, some very good insight. I thought you’ve been storing Puerh since late ‘90s early ‘00 since you have such a large collection?

[Rickpatbrown]

Seems you've set a project for yourself. What a thorough post. It sounds like you're a tea speculator. You have to understand that if you're seeking to speculate that you must purchase productions that are highly regarded or have the potential to be highly regarded in future. You must recognize that much of this is mystique, puffery, not reality imho.

-------

Mainland storage is the BEST storage for long term. Guandong storage is best. I've tasted enough Taiwan fancy stuff, and HK is worse. It still takes YEARS to air that stuff out; what's more the material has been thoroughly cooked, including the qi, to an extent that it has virtually no taste dynamics. Of course, I'm being opinionated on this matter but stuff killed in HK for 10 yrs either tastes like garbage water or in best case highly mineralized dirt water. There are NO high notes. Some prefer that, like my wife. I don't.

Hope this helps without coming off as some authority, which I don't claim to be.

I'm not a speculator in the monetary sense. Not trying to make money of tea. Maybe I'm a speculator in the tea, though. I just want to have amazing tea for my life and $50K is a scary number.

I do understand the mystique and fluffery that goes on ... not to mention fakes. In general, I'm looking for high quality, solid performers, not LBZ gushu XYZ with the misspelled wrapper or whatever people think is the thing.

I dont think you can lump Taiwan, HK, Guandong into such broad categories. Certainly there are different techniques and climates within these places. South Taiwan is extremely differnet than Taipei, for instance.

Earthmonkey, do you buy young sheng? What do you look for?

[Noonie]

Interesting post!

After buying only 15 cakes or so of Shou and aged Sheng I decided I’m not buying anymore until I’m pretty much finished these. You never know if your tastes change, health stuff or whatever, so I would rather pay more in the moment for aged tea than save $ and age it myself.

[EarthMonkey]

"Stupid mainlander" isn't meant to be taken wrong.

If that was not your intention, then it's really unnecessary to propagate a stereotype.

Saying "I'm not XYZ-ist but..." is still XYZ-ist.

I'm not aware of any stereotype. As I implied, it's more a matter of the new rich than anything else. Having lived in Mainland and speaking the language, I'm still otherwise daft regarding the numerous "sensitivities" that have coincidentally emerged over the course of this time.

[EarthMonkey]

Thanks for sharing EarthMonkey, some very good insight. I thought you’ve been storing Puerh since late ‘90s early ‘00 since you have such a large collection?

I regarded puer more as a folk specialty than a speculative item in the early 90s. I had mostly ripe and wasn't remotely impressed. It's only after finding a need for patients did I circle round to puer.

[mbanu]

Your best bet, honestly, is to look into what happened to the online pu'er drinkers of the early 2000s. First, because even though everyone seems very excited about the concept of "pumidors", the number of people who have had pu'er stored this way for a significant period of time who were not the ones who put it there is actually pretty small. I imagine quite a bit of it was spoiled by some mistake that didn't become obvious until several years had passed.

Second, because sometimes pu'er buying reminds me a bit of someone deciding to get a band tattoo; caught up in the spirit of the moment it is hard to see how things will look in the future. A lot of those early pu'er drinkers dropped out of the tea-hobbyist scene completely, or found that things were ending not where they expected. Two good folks to look into, I think, are David Lee Hoffman and Mike Petro, who are both good representations of a certain type of pu'er tea-buyer. It also wouldn't hurt to browse older group blogs such as the puerh_tea LiveJournal or some of the older Blogspot blogs, and of course to dig into the archives of pu'er-friendly forums such as TeaChat.

I think that this will provide the proper grounding for making good choices.

As a general rule, I'd say that pu'er should be bought in larger quantities not when you are young for when you are old, but when you are old for when you are older. If you ever want to find someone who is an accidental master at aging things, go to an older relative's house and check the expiration dates on the things in the back of their fridge that they claim they "bought only yesterday".

[Rickpatbrown]

A lot of those early pu'er drinkers dropped out of the tea-hobbyist scene completely, or found that things were ending not where they expected. Two good folks to look into, I think, are David Lee Hoffman and Mike Petro, who are both good representations of a certain type of pu'er tea-buyer.

Thanks for the info. I looked up those two gentlemen. David Lee Hoffman is a really interesting story. Mike Petro's wife died and he is no longer into tea. I see how things can change.

To be clear, I'm not trying to collect tons of tea. I'm talking about 150 cakes over my lifetime.

I think having a few tongs of young sheng is perfectly reasonable.

Digging out a puerh cave for 200 000 pounds ... that's another issue

[aet]

as mentioned here about the storage. Get know your storage conditions / transformation abilities first. If you use heater at home during winter, it really dries out the air and can seriously impact the puerh you store. So yes, I would try 1cake of young sheng 1 pack of loose young sheng ( whatever size you choose ) . Drink it new and try it year later, so you understand your storage.
Although factory teas sounds safe , yet you pay quite lots of money for the label. And by that I don't mean only double price of the actual cost , but 3-5 times more ( depends on company and strategy ) I'm not going to go to details here, but I always compare it to iPhone or other branded stuff , like Coca Cola.
If want to know more, send me PM , I'll send you link to blog where I explain more, I don't want spam here .
Boutique stuff is not cheap either , yet usually some nice selected material is used and it makes more point to age for drinking, not as investment of TF teas, which Chinese buy in tons for just "move money around" .
Should you feel like to skip all branding, buy loose leaf. If not enough space in your storage, get it pressed.
We do often custom pressing for not only tea businesses but also for private collectors / small groups of puerh drinkers who share order in smaller amounts.
We offer custom sourcing sheng puerh for those purposes and also recommend / advise if needed.
If you interested in details, please pm me.

[Rickpatbrown]

Some great info here. Thanks everyone. I also spent the last few days going through the puerh section on teachat. I made it back to 2014, reading threads that caught my eye.

I see what a lot of people are saying. I was assuming that since western storage started about 10-15 years ago in earnest, we'd have a pretty good idea of what works and what doesnt. The thing is, people cant seem to agree. There are so many variables and opinions. I got the feeling that sealed, humidified pumidors didnt get popular until 5 to 7 years ago maybe. And this is something that could really go wrong. I feel like my 68-70% RH at 68-80°F is a pretty safe spot, but you are right ... I need to find out for myself.

I was also struck by the recent history of pu'erh. I've heard people talk about "the bubble" and the crash, but it's interesting reading old threads about people talking about poorly processed tea not aging well. It was also interesting seeing people complain about the "high" price of $30 cakes! God I wish $30 was high, now.

There seems to be a lot of skill requires in identifying processing errors in pu'erh. A lot of teas are made to taste good now and will never age well.

I also feel like I need to get myself calibrated, correctly. I dont have enough experience with good aged material to know what I'm actually shooting for.

I wonder if anyone has tried the teas we like 2003 7542 Hong Kong Henry https://teaswelike.com/product/2003-hon ... enry-7542/
This is a relatively inexpensive cake that I enjoy. Its price indicates that it's not a particularly excellent cake, but I find it tastes nice and makes me feel good. I dont think it's really worth my effort to store a $50 cake for 20 years to get that result, though. Not when I can buy it done well for $150.

I guess the real advantage is that I can buy nice cakes now, that will not be available in the future... for less than $1000.

But anyway, I've been convinced that I am not ready to start buying $200 young cakes yet. I will buy a 2020 spring tea from Yunnan Sourcing and maybe a factory cake and see how it goes for the year. I will keep learning, in the mean time.